Punxsutawney Phil Vs. the U.S. National Temps Data: 1988–2011

by Editor on February 3, 2012

No predictive skill for the groundhog in the period

Groundhog

Just a groundhog, not Phil -- Image Courtesy Wikipedia

Asheville NC, USA — The table below gives a snapshot by year since 1988 whether Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow or not along with the corresponding monthly national average temperature departures in the USA for both February and March.

The table shows no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of this analysis.

Since 1993, the U.S. national temperature as recorded and reported has been above normal 10 times in February, 11 times in March, below normal 6 times in February, 3 times in March, and near normal 3 times in February and 5 times in March.

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