Report Contradicts Both Pruitt & Trump
(Video Caption) A draft report by scientists from 13 federal agencies directly contradicts statements by Scott Pruitt, the E.P.A. administrator, that human contribution to climate change is uncertain. By A.J. CHAVAR, CHRIS CIRILLO, LISA FRIEDMAN and DAVE HORN on Publish Date August 8, 2017. Photo by Al Drago for The New York Times. Watch in Times Video »
“WASHINGTON —NY Times– The average temperature in the United States has risen rapidly and drastically since 1980, and recent decades have been the warmest of the past 1,500 years, according to a sweeping federal climate change report awaiting approval by the Trump administration.
“The draft report by scientists from 13 federal agencies concludes that Americans are feeling the effects of climate change right now. It directly contradicts claims by President Trump and members of his cabinet who say that the human contribution to climate change is uncertain, and that the ability to predict the effects is limited.”
“Evidence for a changing climate abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans,” a draft of the report states.
“It was uploaded to a nonprofit internet digital library in January but received little attention until it was published by The New York Times.”
A draft report by scientists from 13 federal agencies concludes that Americans are feeling the effects of climate change right now.
Compare the new 2017 Draft with the 2014 National Climate Assessment written and produced in 2014. Note that the formats are very different and that the new report conclusions are more selectively highlighted with confidence estimates that are explained in the new draft: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloads.
The Times also published a quick summary of the report’s finding online as: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/08/climate/nine-takeaways-climate-report.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate&action=click&contentCollection=climate®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront
Below are the actual draft summary finding in terms used in the draft report for 28 June 2017 without translation, just a little re-orientation to make it fit our website format better with our editorial emphasis added:
Our Globally Changing Climate
KEY FINDINGS (Subject to Final Copy edit 28 June 2017)
1. The global climate continues to change rapidly compared to the pace of the natural variations in climate that have occurred throughout Earth’s history. Trends in globally averaged temperature, sea level rise, upper-ocean heat content, land-based ice melt,
Arctic sea ice, depth of seasonal permafrost thaw, and other climate variables provide
consistent evidence of a warming planet. These observed trends are robust and have been confirmed by multiple independent research groups around the world. (Very high confidence)
2. The frequency and intensity of extreme heat and heavy precipitation events are increasing in most continental regions of the world (very high confidence). These trends are consistent with expected physical responses to a warming climate.
Climate model studies are also consistent with these trends, although models tend to underestimate the observed trends, especially for the increase in extreme precipitation events (very high confidence for temperature, high confidence for extreme precipitation). The frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events are virtually certain to increase in the future as global temperature increases (high confidence).
Extreme precipitation events will very likely continue to increase in frequency and intensity throughout most of the world (high confidence).
Observed and projected trends for some other types of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and severe storms, have more variable regional characteristics.
3. Many lines of evidence demonstrate that it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.
Formal detection and attribution studies for the period 1951 to 2010 find that the observed global mean surface temperature warming lies in the middle of the range of likely human contributions to warming over that same period.
We find no convincing evidence that natural variability can account for the amount of global warming observed over the industrial era. For the period extending over the last century, there are no convincing alternative explanations supported by the extent of the observational evidence.
Solar output changes and internal variability can only contribute marginally to the observed changes in climate over the last century, and we find no convincing evidence for natural cycles in the observational record that could explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)
4. Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse (heat-trapping) gases emitted globally and on the remaining uncertainty in the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to those emissions (very high confidence).
With significant reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases, the global annually averaged temperature rise could be limited to 3.6 °F (2 °C) or less.
Without major reductions in these emissions, the increase in annual average global temperatures relative to preindustrial times could reach 9 °F (5 °C) or more by the end of this century (high confidence).
5. Natural variability, including El Niño events and other recurring patterns of ocean– atmosphere interactions, impact temperature and precipitation, especially regionally, over months to years. The global influence of natural variability, however, is limited to a small fraction of observed climate trends over decades. (Very high confidence)
6. Longer-term climate records over past centuries and millennia indicate that average temperatures in recent decades over much of the world have been much higher, and have risen faster during this time period, than at any time in the past 1,700 years or more, the time period for which the global distribution of surface temperatures can be reconstructed. (High confidence)
Also, if you are not used to the terms like “High Confidence and very High Confidence”, as used in the draft report, so were we. We are more used to see them used in terms of statistical confidence intervals, with numerical values, as used in Metrology convention.
For sake of content completeness, a screen grab of actual table used in the draft report is shown below along with the report authors’ explanations of them.
Source reference: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/07/climate/climate-change-drastic-warming-trump.html?rref=collection%2Fnewseventcollection%2Fdonald-trump-white-house&action=click&contentCollection=politics®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=14&pgtype=collection
Read the Draft Climate report online at: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/07/climate/document-Draft-of-the-Climate-Science-Special-Report.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate&action=click&contentCollection=climate®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=6&pgtype=sectionfront