How well have climate models projected global warming?

GLOBAL TEMPERATURES – Analysis

all showed surface temperature increases between 1970 and 2016Online  —  (SUMMARY): by Zeke Hausfather
Climate models published since 1973 have generally been quite skillful in projecting future warming.

“While some were too low and some too high, they all show outcomes reasonably close to what has actually occurred, especially when discrepancies between predicted and actual CO2 concentrations and other climate forcings are taken into account.

“Models are far from perfect and will continue to be improved over time.

“They also show a fairly large range of future warming that cannot easily be narrowed using just the changes in climate that we have observed.”

“Nevertheless, the close match between projected and observed warming since 1970 suggests that estimates of future warming may prove similarly accurate.”

Methodological note

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