How well have climate models projected global warming?


all showed surface temperature increases between 1970 and 2016Online  —  (SUMMARY): by Zeke Hausfather
Climate models published since 1973 have generally been quite skillful in projecting future warming.

“While some were too low and some too high, they all show outcomes reasonably close to what has actually occurred, especially when discrepancies between predicted and actual CO2 concentrations and other climate forcings are taken into account.

“Models are far from perfect and will continue to be improved over time.

“They also show a fairly large range of future warming that cannot easily be narrowed using just the changes in climate that we have observed.”

“Nevertheless, the close match between projected and observed warming since 1970 suggests that estimates of future warming may prove similarly accurate.”

Methodological note

CarbonBrief LogoPublished under a CC license. You are welcome to reproduce unadapted material in full for non-commercial use, credited ‘Carbon Brief’ with a link to the article. Please contact us for commercial use.

Read the full article online at:

View animation on Instagram:

Carbon Brief is a UK-based website covering the latest developments in climate science, climate policy and energy policy. We specialise in clear, data-driven articles and graphics to help improve the understanding of climate change, both in terms of the science and the policy response. We publish a wide range of content, including science explainers, interviews, analysis and factchecks, as well as daily and weekly email summaries of newspaper and online coverage.

In 2017, Carbon Brief won the “Best Specialist Site for Journalism” category at the prestigious Online Media Awards.


Carbon Brief is keen to hear from anyone – scientists, civil servants, etc – who wishes to pass us anonymously a tip-off, message or documentation of interest. We will expose serious wrongdoing, such as corruption, political intimidation/interference and data suppression, if the information we receive can be verified and it is in the public interest to do so.

Protecting the anonymity and security of sources is vitally important to us so we have taken steps to ensure that you can contact us securely and without your communications being intercepted by third parties.

The following options are available:


Signal is a messaging and phone app which uses end-to-end encryption. Signal will store your number but will not log your message history or who you have contacted. You can also set it to delete messages automatically after sending so they are not stored in the cloud.

For more information about Signal, visit

Once installed, you can contact us on +447418 066 519. (This number can also been used to contact us via WhatsApp.)


You can send us encrypted emails using PGP. You may want to use an alternative email address and connect from an IP address other than your home or work, e.g. a coffee shop or internet cafe.

You may want to use a newly created, web-based email address. Although the body of the email will be encrypted, the record of who you contacted may still be obtained by third parties.

You may need to install an email client, or you can use browser plugins, such as Mailvelope, to use PGP.

You can contact us at

PGP fingerprint: CFE5 B6DA 9310 9217 A009 F29D DD7B 3EDA A3C5 EC8D

PGP Public Key

Individual keys for the members of our team are available on our About Us page.


You can also simply post us mail to our office in London. Mail your package from a public letter box and do not include a return address. This is, perhaps, the most secure method to send us a message or documents. Be careful not to print out any documents at your workplace, though, as this might leave a digital trail.

Our address is:

Carbon Brief
40 Bermondsey Street
London SE1 3UD
United Kingdom